Af-Pak’s long-term solution
By: Tarique Khan Javed
President, Overseas Pakistani Investors Forum.
                           Dated 12 May 2009

The sole Super power of the world USA now looks at Afghanistan and Pakistan as one Country/Region. So any solution to its problem can not be achieved in isolation. The whole world seems to be in agreement with that and in particular Ex Colonial Rulers of the Region UK is in agreement with this view.

British forward policy and pursuit of scientific border:
It was the Britishers who with their Forward Policy created the present problem in the first place. Their capture and annexation of Baluchistan and FATA/PATA areas and pursuit of so called scientific border gave Pakistan its current shape. Otherwise Pakistan would end at HUB, Jacobabad, Dera Ghazi Khan, Dera Ismail Khan, Peshawar, Mardan, Hasan Abdal and Murree.  Rest of the area was added during period 1866 and 1900 due to the Forward Policy in response to Russian threat. The Russian threat did materialize in 1978, when USSR invaded Afghanistan in support of the socialist Sour Revolution. The Sour revolution created a permanent rift between the Ruling Pashtoon tribe and subordinate tribes like Hazaras, Nouristanis, Tajik and Uzbek. The result of revolution was favorable for the depressed tribes while detrimental for the Pashtoons. Land was taken away from big Land lords and given to landless. The result was a permanent rift in Afghanistan in the form of Northern Alliance and Pashtoons. While, USA was supporting Pashtoons during Soviet Rule and after their departure in 1988 up to 9/11 but reversed its policy and now supports Northern Alliance against Pashtoons in the  form of their war against Taliban, who are all Pashtoon who fight in the guise of Islam.

While, an all out war against the Pashtoon extremist called Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan is going out, time has come to think of how to settle the matter for good.

It must be recalled that despite the tales of Afghan velour, courage and fighting skills they were repeatedly defeated by the superior and organized British army. The deciding factor was always Air Force.  As a result of 2nd Afghan war, in terms of the Treaty of Gandamak (1879), with defeated Afghan Ruler Yakub Khan, Afghan territories of Sibi, Pishan and Kurram were ceded to the British.

The Northern Baluchistan was settled with relative ease while, the FATA remained a source of trouble due to half hearted attempt to capture it by the Punjab Government. After British departure, Pakistan’s decision to close all cantonments in FATA proved to be one of the biggest blunders Pakistan committed. The result was 9/11 and it’s continuing fall outs.

Pakistan’s ambitions in Afghanistan:
However, Pakistan was able to make major inroads in Afghanistan during the period 1978 and 2001. ISI was controlling most of the territory with the help of its allies who called themselves Mujahidins. However, 9/11 and USA massive bombardment gave strength to anti Pakistani elements in Afghanistan, in the form of Northern Alliance of anti Pakhtoon tribes dominating the North and West of the country. Pakistan’s reversal of fortune was dramatic. From a position of strength when whole of Afghanistan virtually became part of Pakistan. Particularly during the Taliban Rule during 1995 and 2001, now speculation is rife in West that Pakistan may loose both Baluchistan and entire NWFP.  “Greater Baluchistan” including Iranian Baluchistan and “Pakhtonkhawa” including Northern Baluchistan, NWFP and South and Eastern Afghanistan is being discussed seriously to replace existing Pakistan.  

Why Swat operation became inevitable:
Current Swat operation and huge migration of up to 500,000 people has brought the issue of Pakistan’s existence, as it is, to the fore front of World political debate. Some would say that Pakistan army will easily crush the 4000 or so Taliban of Swat and regain control and prevent the implementation of Islamic system which will go against all the liberal human right advances made so far, particularly in terms of woman rights. The others would urge that the fighting will go for long and compel Pakistan to seek a negotiated settlement completely on Taliban terms. After which, Taliban will advance to rest of the country enforcing their kind of Wahabi Islam, in which the women will be confined to home, all men will have to keep a beard and pray five times in mosques, the current banking and insurance system will be dismantled, all graveyards including the shrines of great saints will be bull dozed, all avenue of entertainment will be closed. A scary picture indeed!

Towards a greater Pakistan:
Based on my study of regions history, I think that Pakistan will not only survive but thrive in coming years. The west wards advance started by British Empire in 1886, will continue and Pakistan will not only add all FATA and PATA areas into proper Pakistan but will also take additional Afghan and Iranian territories.

In this connection, the understanding of the process of absorption of Northern Baluchistan into British Empire is a key. Similarly, the process of taking control of Khan of Kalat’s territory must be understood.

The Brtishers were surprised, at the ease of taking control of huge territory of Khan of Kalat without any serious fight, thanks to the division within the Baluch Sardars of the time and obedient following by the rest of Baluch population. Pathans on the other hand resisted the taking control of Quetta given to the Brtishers by Khan of Kalat under the terms of Mustang Agreement in 1886. They launched Fadain attacks with swords   on Quetta cantonment on a weekly basis, killing as many before being killed; sort of suicide attack of the time.  However, as Pathans sow the benefits of British rule their opposition subsided and today the northern Baluchistan is the most peaceful and pro Pakistani area of Baluchistan and NWFP. Let me explain, how this happened. This is important as we need to copy the model used, in Upper Baluchistan for FATA and PATA area.
 

How Pathan resistance was overcome in Baluchistan:
The accepted wisdom of the time was that the ease at which British influence was established in Baloch area due to their obedience to their Sardar may not be possible in the Pathan areas.

Britishers therefore advanced in these areas with lot of caution and patients. Kakar, Shinwani, Tareens, Orakzia tribes were known for their fighting skills and courage. The most formidable foe of the British however, was Sardar Shahjahan of Zhob, who was said to have super natural powers. He claimed to be the rightful Ruler of the Pathan region based on a decree of Amir of Afghanistan.

Sandeman the British Agent in Baluchistan Agency, reporting directly to Delhi, with an overwhelming force first took Lora lai and then moved on Kila Saif Ullah and Zhob. Apart from small encounters no fighting of significance took place and one by one local Chiefs surrendered and offered their close relatives as hostages. When Shahjahan’s fort at Zhob was blown up in front of leading Sardars; they were convinced of military superiority of the British, who already had support of the Baloch. The Pathans agreed to remain peaceful under British rule and till today they have remained so.

Sandeman along with his loyal and able assistant Robert Bruce gradually expanded his authority using military force, diplomacy and above all money.  He extended proper British rule all over present Northern Baluchistan including Zhob, Sibi, Pishan, Chaman, Qila Abdulla, Gulistan, Bustan and Muslim Bagh.

Sandeman’s master stroke won him support from Higher British authorities and Merewether’s concerns were found baseless. In the dyeing days of the empire, addition of such a large territory, made Sandeman stand out among builders of the British Empire.

While, another set of Administrators in NWFP thought it was better to leave all mountainous areas outside British Control and contend with limited control. Northern Baluchistan and NWFP are both populated by Pathans and the topography is similar yet two different set of administrators thought so differently leading to such different results.

The Sandemanian security arrangements:
Sandeman made arrangements with local tribes along the route to guard their part of territory, which reduced the pressure on British army and this arrangement, was very economical and politically expedient. The tribes were happy with well paid jobs besides the agreed annual payment to tribal Sardar proved very good allies of the British. Sandeman also insisted on taking few close relatives of major tribal Chiefs as hostage to ensure compliance with the agreement. Many of these young sons and nephews become respected British officials after receiving good education in colleges in Punjab and Sindh.

Today all of Baluchistan is controlled by three to four layers of security. The initial and most visible force is the well armed Police, the second is local militia of Levis, to support these forces there exist a formidable force of some 38,000 Frontier Corp and finally there is the armed forces of Pakistan. Where, regular Police is missing the local militias perform policing duty.

The recent Baloch uprising in the form of BLA was crushed by these forces.

The cost of not absorbing FATA---9/11:
The success in Baluchistan was not followed in NWFP mainly due to the mindset of the Administrators of Punjab who controlled them. Financial consideration also played a crucial role. As FATA region was not expected to yield a positive return in terms of revenue, the additional expense of extending British rule would have been a great burden on Punjab Government.

 The argument that these areas were left out due to fierce resistance of the tribes may also be true to some extent who ever based on Baluchistan experience with equally fearsome tribes and a much more hostile topography this may not be the whole truth. The Toba and Kakar range, Suleimanian range are much higher mountain range than the once in FATA. Except for a small portion of South Waziristan and Parachinar area most of FATA area is low lying and easily accessible compared to Northern Baluchistan. Similarly, to suggest that Afridis, Waziries or other FATA tribes are better fighters than the Pathans of Northern Baluchistan is also not fair.

The Pathans of Northern Baluchistan soon released the benefits of British rule and accepted their rule in their best interest and decided to take economic advantage of a peaceful and orderly country rather than, resist and linger poverty and misery. The appeal of people like Shahjahan who advocated rebellion in the name of Islam, with a view to continue the indirect rule by Amir of Afghanistan, was lost compared to technologically advanced British system. Which soon provided secure and busy trade routes like Bolan and Kojak Pass, better Roads, Railways, Telephone and Telegraph, hospitals and school and above all well paid and secure government jobs? Practical minded Pathans chose British rule over that of a medieval Afghan overlord who not in foreseeable future could deliver these benefits.      

The results are for all to see. While, Pathans of Baluchistan are wealthy, educated, healthy and happy lot, people of FATA suffer endlessly.

It may be said that, perhaps 9/11 would not have happened if the British authorities had decided to include all of FATA into NWFP, as was urged by the people of the area and British administrators like Robert Bruce, who was the Political Agent of Waziristan, as his last posting in sub continent.

If Bruce’s recommendations were accepted Waziristan which is the largest part of FATA (60%) could have been included either in Baluchistan or NWFP. He contended that 56% of the people of the area were property owners and wished that their area be included in Crown area with usual protection of live and property. Bruce contended that a small portion of about 15% people who were property-less and used to banditry wished that their area remain outside the orbit of British rule, so that they may continue their activities unhindered. He also mentions that the class of Mullahs comprising 20% of population,  sided with the bandits and common people  from time to time and had no character. He considered them source of constant trouble with no integrity in their stand. He thought that these rouge elements could be ignored and wishes of the majority peaceful people should be accepted.

9/11 and its imperatives:
9/11 may be considered a God send blessing for Pakistan to expand its territory into FATA and perhaps take the rest of Afghanistan’s Pakhtoon belt into Pakistan continuing the west ward march started by Sandeman.

Circumstances have developed whereby either, we should secede the entire FATA, Northern Baluchistan and NWFP to Afghanistan or take away the divided Pakhtoon area into Pakistan. A referendum may be held under UN supervision to decide this. While, some may fear that Pathans my opt for Afghanistan, based on Northern Baluchistan history and given my understanding of the pragmatic mindset of Pathans, I am convinced that they will opt for Pakistan. Even if given a choice they will also not opt for an independent Pakhtoonkhawa. West will not allow this as this may become a bigger FATA.

 

Pakhtoon as past rulers of the Region and current problem:
Pakhtoon always ruled over Afghanistan and also had influences over neighboring ruler like the Khan of Kalat. Their supremacy was challenged by the rise of British power in the East. They resented and resisted but the British prevailed and Pakistan was created incorporating lot of their land including FATA and northern portion of Baluchistan.

Soviet invasion further eroded Pakhtoon status as the Master martial race and ruler as the new socialist power supported the here to oppressed nationalities like Tajiks, Uzbuks, Turks and Hazaras as they were less orthodox Muslims and natural allies.

Pakhtoon fought against the Soviets with the help of West and Pakistan but once they left they found that, the northern alliance of formally depressed tribes, were not ready to accept Pakhtoon rule once again and bitter civil war ensued.

Pakhtoon with the help of Pakistan raised Taliban and in the name of pure Islam, tried to once again rule all over Afghanistan. However, after 9/11 West turned against them in support of the oppressed nationalities and once again they found themselves to be on receiving end of the oppression, they used to inflict on weaker Afghan tribes and India.

Pakhtoon from hunters to hunted:
Since 9/11, lots of Pakhtoon have died and suffered. They are being pounded from all sides. While, the rest of Afghanistan has become peaceful the Pakhtoon belt from Jalalabad to Khandahar and extending west up to Herat and in the south upto Pakistani borders remain restive and in rebellion and scene of lot of killing. Similarly in Pakistan from Swat to South Waziristan a civil war goes on in which lot of Pakistani armed forces are being killed and in return, they are killing a lot of Pakhtoon and destroying there properties.

Pakhtoon in Baluchistan; why they are not affected?
It is strange to note the Pakhtoon of Baluchistan are peaceful amid all this violence. To me it is the result of Sandamenian system. Which applied else where will lead to same results. In my recent visit to Quetta, Ziarat, Loralia, Qila Saif Ullah and Zhob. I asked why Pakhtoon in Baluchistan are not joining the fight against West and Pakistan. The answer, I got implied that they have accepted the system of security provided by the Sandamenian system and gradually, adopted to peaceful occupation and have no desire to go back to law less state which hurts the economy and society severely in the long run.
 
I observed that while, Baluch areas like Kuzdar, Kalat and Nushki are under the influence of leaders like Akhtar Mengal who advocate Sami independence of Baluchistan, Pakhtoon areas are very pro Pakistan.

The solution:
I therefore, propose that Pakistan should apply Sandamenian system all over FATA and PATA. In consultation with USA and Europe, we should convince UN that all Pakhtoon belt in Afghanistan be merged with Pakistan. This will reduce a huge security burden for Afghanistan and NATO forces and result in a peaceful Afghanistan for ever.

Pakhtoon once united within Pakistan will be a much happier lot. They will become a major force in a dynamic and powerful economic and military power. They will help Pakistan attain its rightful status as a major economic power of the world.

Why Pakhtoon will join Pakistan?
Given a choice to merge with Afghanistan or Pakistan majority of Pakhtoon would prefer to be with Pakistan. The reasons for which are as follows:

1. Afghanistan has never been a viable state able to collect taxes from its masses and has always been supported by external funds either from raids into neighboring countries or foreign aid. Government pays citizens of Afghanistan.

2. It hardy has an industrial base while the agriculture and livestock are rudimentary and for subsistence only. No wonder, Afghans and Pathans have always sought jobs all over India.

3. In Afghanistan, the ethnic division is very sharp. Pathans with over 50% population have dominated and often oppressed other nationalities with impunity. Since, the Soviet invasion in 1978, the oppressed nationalities have formed an alliance against the Pathans and they would not mind at all if Pathans decided to join Pakistan and leave Afghanistan for others.
   
    4. Pathans claim to be descendents of some follower of Prophet Mohammed, as such they feel a special responsibility to preserve and enforce Islam in its original form. Wahibism thus is their preferred brand of Islam. Like Saudi Ruling family in recent times, Pathans always used enforcement of pure Islam as their moral standard bearer and justified their harsh treatment of people like Hazaras in Afghanistan, who are Shias or Hindus in India. Their last attempt to rule all over Afghanistan was the 1995-2001 Taliban rules out of Khandahar. With awareness created by Soviet rule and current involvement with west other nationalities of Afghanistan are going to fiercely oppose any imposition of Taliban type rule. Implying an ongoing civil war as witnessed after the departure of Russians. Under the circumstances Pathans would feel more comfortable in Pakistan, where Islam is chief source of law.

5. Pakistan is a modern state with huge agriculture base and a sizeable industrial output. It is nuclear state with potential to become a leading economy of the world. Pakistan provides most of the food grain consumed by Afghanistan. If Pakistan does not allow easy export and smuggling of food into Afghanistan, people will suffer unendingly. For Pathans it is better to be on the side of bread basket rather than a dependent state.

6. Pathans have done very well in Pakistan. They are a source of strength to the nation from Swat to Karachi. One can find them in every knock and corner of Pakistan. They mix and trade with others with ease. They have attained many high offices and have sizeable business and professional leaders.

7. Inclusion of all Pathans into Pakistan will give a tremendous boost to Pakistan.   The depression of losing East Pakistan and not able to get Kashmir, will be wiped out with the expansion of country upto Turkmenistan.

8. With borders extended upto Turkmenistan it will become possible to extend the current Bolan, Kojak pass route upto Europe in a secure manner. This is an urgent economic need of the region and lead to opening of massive trade from Eastern Europe to warm waters of Indian Ocean. Gawadar port could be connected to Herat in a direct manner to reduce distance. Pathans will be the main beneficiary of the gigantic expansion of trade in the region.